The election is headed for the home stretch so what better time to start a little project. I have started examining each swing state and the probable winner for each based on current data, the 2016 election, and overall sentiment. You can find the data here.
I will update the states as we draw closer to “E-Day” but do note that early voting is ongoing in some states and close to kicking off in others. I will revise states currently on the the list and most likely adding more moving forward. We will also start tracking the Electoral College map starting tomorrow.
Also, Thought it would be fun to add a little analysis based on the data to date. Here are my initial positive thoughts for both candidates:
1. The president trails in each swing state but the 2016 story was similar and how did that turn out?
2. Biden’s advantage in each state is smaller than Clinton’s 2016 advantage.
3. Every 2016 swing state poll fell short of Trump’s victory margin even the states he was leading resulted in a larger MOV. He lost New Hampshire by a razor thin margin.
4. These are aggregate polling numbers, which means sites such as RCP or Politico average several polls of varying validity. Polls favorable to Trump could be more accurate.
5. Back to note #2, Biden leads all swing state but every lead save Michigan and New Hampshire fall with the margin of error (MOE).
6. Regarding note #5, you could say that means the “MOE” states are essentially deadlocked.
The numbers are trending in a blue direction as Trump struggle to build momentum.
The president eroded larger leads in 2016 but his campaign was trending in a very positive direction as #1 alluded.
It may be harder to surprise experts as an incumbent whose support is already baked in the polls.
Biden has raised far more money to the point Democrats are spending large sums in all swings states plus typical red states such as Texas.
Regarding #4, if Texas ends up on this list The Trump campaign is in real trouble.