Swing Shift

The election is headed for the home stretch so what better time to start a little project. I have started examining each swing state and the probable winner for each based on current data, the 2016 election, and overall sentiment. You can find the data here.

 

I will update the states as we draw closer to “E-Day” but do note that early voting is ongoing in some states and close to kicking off in others. I will revise states currently on the the list and most likely adding more moving forward. We will also start tracking the Electoral College map starting tomorrow.

 

Also, Thought it would be fun to add a little analysis based on the data to date. Here are my initial positive thoughts for both candidates:

 

Pro-Trump

 

1. The president trails in each swing state but the 2016 story was similar and how did that turn out?

2. Biden’s advantage in each state is smaller than Clinton’s 2016 advantage.

3. Every 2016 swing state poll fell short of Trump’s victory margin even the states he was leading resulted in a larger MOV. He lost New Hampshire by a razor thin margin.

4. These are aggregate polling numbers, which means sites such as RCP or Politico average several polls of varying validity. Polls favorable to Trump could be more accurate.

5. Back to note #2, Biden leads all swing state but every lead save Michigan and New Hampshire fall with the margin of error (MOE).

6. Regarding note #5, you could say that means the “MOE” states are essentially deadlocked.

 

Pro-Biden

 
  1. The numbers are trending in a blue direction as Trump struggle to build momentum.

  2. The president eroded larger leads in 2016 but his campaign was trending in a very positive direction as #1 alluded.

  3. It may be harder to surprise experts as an incumbent whose support is already baked in the polls.

  4. Biden has raised far more money to the point Democrats are spending large sums in all swings states plus typical red states such as Texas.

  5. Regarding #4, if Texas ends up on this list The Trump campaign is in real trouble.

10 responses to “Swing Shift”

  1. With hindsight, it is really interesting to look at this post. Because on one hand, Trump did win as the underdog in 2016. However, it does seem now unlikely an underdog would win twice in a row.

  2. I appreciate the chart that you made and looking back on it, it still rings pretty accurate. I do think that the polls were off in the favor of biden considering that trump did win a few swing states that biden held big leads in according to the polls.

  3. I really liked that you’ve provided positive thoughts for both candidates, as it’s nice to compare. It’s so interesting to note all of the steps that lead up to the actual Election Day.

  4. This blog post talks about the swing states and the likely winner in that state. I found it interesting to look at the pros/positives of each candidate. I feel like this year I was constantly seeing people post their opinions on facebook or other social medias and it was always a strong opinion one way or the other. Something that I noticed is that people on social media held strong to their opinion and wouldn’t let anyone tell them something else. I rarely saw anyone listen to another person’s opinion and just agree to disagree. You are always going to have a different view of something than someone else, and I think that it is important to learn how to respect other’s views and opinions.

  5. “Swing Shift”
    This blog is relevant to the course because it talks about Biden versus Trump and that is something that we have discussed this semester in class. The subject matter is the election starting up and there being a shift i9 the swing of things since the election is kicking into high gear. The current event is that there are people that are pro-trump and people that are pro-Biden. The blog lists things that make someone pro-Trump or pro-Biden. There are people that agree with every single thing that Trump stands for and there are some people that don’t but are still pro-Trump and there are some people who completely agree with everything Biden stands for but some that don’t and still chose to be pro-Biden. Mostly the blog talks about specific differences of what people sign up for when they vote for the democratic party or the Republican side. I chose this article because I am fairly new to voting, this year was my first year to vote and it was very difficult for me to discern which person I wanted to vote for. I wish I would’ve been more educated in the different political parties so that I could’ve represented what I believed more accurately. I agree with some things from both sides and I also disagree with things on both sides so it was very informational to be able to read this blog and learn some things that I didn’t know before. I would address this problem by trying to think like Jesus. I think there is a lot of conflicts now because of people wanting their voices to be heard and not being able to sympathize with both sides. People, especially Christians need to be better leaders and lead people in the way Jesus would want America to be led.

  6. I really liked that you added the data table for the swing states into this blog, it was cool to be able to see how each state is moving.

  7. Now we know the outcome of the election, but I think you put the election in a pretty good perspective and without bias, which is awesome since it is not easily found in post about politics nowadays.

  8. Tis list is a great play by play for the past election, it was brief and to the point, but also including all the right information to help understand where the election is going!

  9. Both sides make good and bad points when it comes to the pro-trump or pro-biden groups. I personally am a moderate so i feel that there were many extremists in this last election. That being said, These too candidates could not be more different in their approach to presidential conduct. This election was very important to the survival of this country. I feel there was a huge social tare created though so i hope that mends soon.

    This post was relevant because we right now are seeing post affects of the election and fall out after such huge divides were caused by pro or anti political parties. I think we all need to work harder as a country to promote real unity

    Christian Fleming

  10. Growing up, I was raised in a very republican household. So, every election year my parents panic that the world is going to end if we elect a Democrat president. Thankfully, my sister and I are much less republican than my parents and are interested in hearing what both sides have to offer. However, that means November of this year was an exceptionally chaotic time in my life. Because of that, I enjoyed reflecting on some of the actual truths behind this past election. Due to how far right my family is, I did not hear too much about how much effort was put into Biden’s campaign, nor did I hear anything about Trump struggling to gain momentum. Those were new and very interesting facts for me to read in this blog. I also enjoyed the map that is attached to this blog. I am such a visual person so it was neat to compare the projections with the outcomes now that the election has already happened. I read in another student’s comment that he felt it was unlikely for the underdog to win the election two years in a row and sadly, I have to agree with him. Overall, I enjoyed reading this blog and looking back on the election in a new light.

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